Home / Big debate: How do you solve a problem like OPEC?
Big debate: How do you solve a problem like OPEC?by Patrick Osgood on Jun 9, 2011
In a comment piece today, I make the case for OPEC's impending implosion, following their disastrous meeting on Wednesday in which the member countries could not agree over oil production, despite predictions they would do so.
Following news that Saudi Arabia is ready to pump as much oil as the market needs, I say:
"the largest member of OPEC is simply ignoring the cartel’s inactions that these days pass for decisions, despite the obvious rage this will cause and the risk it poses to the integrity of the cartel itself. It would be difficult to imagine a more stark rejection of OPEC’s quota system than that.
And in a world where oil demand is rising to meet oil supply, who needs a producers' cartel anyway?"
But this is just one view. The politically-driven problems between Iran and Saudi could be resolved if relations within the Iranian governing regime improve.
Reluctant OPEC members may be scared into increasing production at the prospect of OPEC's diminishing credibility.
Events in the MIddle East and North Africa may calm, reducing the risk premium many analysts say is attached to current oil prices.
Or I could be mistaking a spat between politicians as an institutional crisis.
So, what do you think? What does the OPEC meeting, or high oil prices, mean for your business? Please comment below.
Robin Mills, Non-Resident Scholar at INEGMA, gives his analysis.
- OPEC output stays above 30m bpd in December
- OPEC to receive $1 trillion in revenues for 2012
- OPEC picks new leaders and discusses global trends
- Saudi Arabia renews commitment to $100 oil
- G7 hints at SPR release with call on oil producers
- IEA says OPEC oversupplying oil markets
- OPEC warns of demand downside potential in 2013
- Opec asks members to respect 30 mbpd ceiling
- Hawks v doves row signals no change at OPEC
- Iran brands Saudi Arabia an OPEC quota "violator"